Damodaran critica ESG

Na crítica mais radical já feita ao conceito de ESG, Aswath Damodaran tentou desconstruir o consenso do mundo corporativo ao redor de se adotar padrões ambientais, sociais e de governança nas empresas.

Dentre outras críticas diretas (e polêmicas), o ‘papa do valuation’ disse que considera o ESG o conceito mais “overhyped” e “oversold” da história do mundo dos negócios.

“Nunca vi um conceito com tão pouco por trás ser adotado por tantas pessoas e de forma tão entusiástica,” disse ele durante um evento da MOI Global, para discutir seu livro, “The Dark Side of Valuation.”

Segundo ele, o motivo para isso é que muitas pessoas estão ganhando dinheiro com ESG. “Mas nenhuma delas é investidor ou funcionário de empresas — são os consultores e advisors dos gestores de portfólio.”

Até aí, trata-se de uma crítica razoável: há setores do mercado que vivem da narrativa e não da prática de ESG, e há mesmo cada vez mais dinheiro circulando ao redor do tema.

Leia mais em https://braziljournal.com/damodaran-detona-o-esg-erro-de-valuation

Efeito da Retirada do ICMS da base do PIS/Cofins

 A mudança na base de cálculo do PIS e da Cofins produzirá efeitos fiscais relevantes sobre a arrecadação federal. Em 2017, o STF decidiu que o ICMS não deveria ser computado na base dessas duas contribuições federais. A modulação da decisão ocorreu agora. Primeiro, a Receita Federal deverá devolver aos contribuintes os valores pagos a maior calculados desde março de 2017. Segundo, o valor considerado para o cálculo da devolução (por meio de crédito tributário) será o ICMS destacado nas notas fiscais. Estimativas preliminares da IFI indicam um custo médio anual de 0,6% a 0,9% do PIB entre 2021 e 2030. O efeito acumulado do período 2017 a 2020 é estimado entre 0,9% e 2% do PIB. Em 2021, no Cenário 1 apresentado, o efeito sobre as receitas é estimado em R$ 120,1 bilhões (1,5% do PIB), computadas as compensações trazidas de 2017 a 2020 e as perdas simuladas para o ano corrente.

A retirada do Imposto sobre Circulação e Movimentação Financeira (ICMS) na base de cálculo dos impostos federais PIS-Cofins, prevista na “tese do século”, deve provocar um impacto de R$ 120,1 bilhões nas contas públicas deste ano, o equivalente a 1,5% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Essa é a estimativa feita pelo economista Felipe Salto, diretor-executivo da Instituição Fiscal Independente (IFI).

De acordo com a nota técnica da IFI divulgada nesta segunda-feira (31/05), os levantamentos preliminares indicam um custo médio anual de 0,6% a 0,9% do PIB, entre os anos de 2021 e de 2030. Com isso, um balde de água fria cai nas estimativas recentemente otimistas do governo de redução do rombo das contas públicas deste ano. Outro cenário estimado pela IFI mostra ainda perdas de R$ 162,9 bilhões para o estoque de 2017 a 2020.

Fonte: IFI Senado

Corrupção e Empresas

 Resumo:

We estimate the causal real economic effects of a randomized anti-corruption crackdown on local governments in Brazil using rich micro-data on corruption and firms. After anti-corruption audits, municipalities experience an increase in the number of firms concentrated in sectors most dependent on government relationships and public procurement. Through the estimation of geographic spillovers and additional tests, we show that audits operate via both a direct detection effect as well as through indirect deterrence channels. Politically connected firms suffer after the audits. Our estimates indicate the anti-corruption program generates significant local multipliers which are consistent with the presence of a large corruption tax on government-dependent firms.

Fonte: Corruption and Firms

Emanuele Colonnelli, University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Mounu Prem, Department of Economics, Universidad del Rosario

Impacto das Universidades no empreendedorismo

 Resumo:

This paper provides systematic empirical evidence for the distinctive role of universities on local entrepreneurial ecosystems. Assessing the impact of research institutions on entrepreneurship is challenging, given that these institutions are often located in economic and innovation environments conducive to growth-oriented entrepreneurial activity, are themselves a source of local demand, and produce knowledge, which might serve as the foundation for new ventures. To overcome this inference challenge, we first combine comprehensive business registration records with a predictive analytics approach to measure both the quantity and quality-adjusted quantity of entrepreneurship at the zip-code level on an annual basis. We then link each location to the presence or absence of research-oriented universities or national laboratories. Finally, we exploit significant changes over time in Federal commitments to both universities and national laboratories. Our key finding is that changes in Federal research commitments to universities are uniquely linked to positively correlated changes in the quality-adjusted quantity of entrepreneurship. In contrast, increases in non-research funding to universities and funding to national laboratories is associated with either a neutral or negative impact on the quality-adjusted quantity of entrepreneurship. Research funding to universities seems to play a unique role in promoting the acceleration of local entrepreneurial ecosystems.

More than an Ivory Tower: The Impact of Research Institutions on the Quantity and Qualityof EntrepreneurshipValentina Tartari and Scott Stern

Quedas do Bitcoin

 

10 Melhores Universidades do Mundo 2021

 1- Oxford

2- Stanford 

3- Harvard 

4- California Institute of Technology

5- Massachusetts Institute of Technology

6- University of Cambridge

7- University of California, Berkeley

8- Yale

9- Princeton

10- The University of Chicago

Fonte: World University Rankings 2021

The Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2021 include more than 1,500 universities across 93 countries and regions, making them the largest and most diverse university rankings to date.

Implicações macroeconômicas do COVID-19

 Resumo:

We present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes in aggregate demand larger than the shocks themselves. We argue that the economic shocks associated to the COVID-19 epidemic—shutdowns, layoffs, and firm exits—may have this feature. In one-sector economies supply shocks are never Keynesian. We show that this is a general result that extend to economies with incomplete markets and liquidity constrained consumers. In economies with multiple sectors Keynesian supply shocks are possible, under some conditions. A 50% shock that hits all sectors is not the same as a 100% shock that hits half the economy. Incomplete markets make the conditions for Keynesian supply shocks more likely to be met. Firm exit and job destruction can amplify the initial effect, aggravating the recession. We discuss the effects of various policies. Standard fiscal stimulus can be less effective than usual because the fact that some sectors are shut down mutes the Keynesian multiplier feedback. Monetary policy, as long as it is unimpeded by the zero lower bound, can have magnified effects, by preventing firm exits. Turning to optimal policy, closing down contact-intensive sectors and providing full insurance payments to affected workers can achieve the first-best allocation, despite the lower per-dollar potency of fiscal policy.

“Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?” (with Guido Lorenzoni, Ludwig Straub, and Ivan Werning) July 2020, Revise & Resubmit, American Economic Review.