13 maio 2016
O contador
O novo filme estrelado por Ben Affleck, "O contador", ganhou seu primeiro trailer nesta quinta-feira (12). Com estreia prevista para o dia 20 de outubro no Brasil, o longa é dirigido por Gavin O'Connor ("Guerreiro").
Na produção, Affleck ("Batman vs. Superman: O despertar da justiça") interpreta um contador com uma síndrome que limita suas habilidades sociais que cuida da contabilidade de organizações criminosas, mas aceita seu primeiro cliente que parece ser legítimo -- e que leva uma vida secreta como assassino profissional.
Além do ator, o elenco ainda conta com Anna Kendrick ("Amor sem escalas"), J. K. Simmons ("Whiplash - Em busca da perfeição"), Jon Bernthal (da série "Demolidor"), Jeffrey Tambor (da série "Transparent") e John Lithgow ("Interestelar").
Indicado pelo nosso querido amigo Glauber. Fonte: aqui.
Falso Positivo
Sair do Vermelho
A expressão “sair do vermelho” significa na contabilidade fazer com que o resultado seja positivo. Se você colocar a expressão no Google irão aparecer muitos resultados com dicas para fazer com que seu orçamento pessoal seja mais equilibrado. Em inglês existe a expressão “be in the black” ou mostrar um balanço positivo. É interessante notar que ao contrário da expressão negativa tradicional, o “black” aqui adquire uma conotação positiva. E o vermelho seria uma cor que representa algo ruim. O inglês também admite a expressão “be in the red”, que pode ser traduzida como perder dinheiro. Esta expressão parece ser relativamente recente. Procurando a mesma no acervo do Estado de S Paulo a primeira ocorrência que encontramos é da década de 1980. E com o sentido de melhorar uma situação ruim. Em 1982 o jornal falava de uma central de recados que em um ano e meio ou dois deveria “sair do vermelho”. Em 1993, numa manchete, informava que a “Varig muda para sair do vermelho”.
Antes disto o Jornal do Brasil, em 1970, falavam que os clubes de futebol do Brasil “só vão sair do vermelho no dia que passarem a ser administrados como empresa”. Em 1964 o mesmo jornal fez um interessante trocadilho: “O sr. Aluísio Alves vai cuidar de sua vida, deixando as atividades políticas até sair do vermelho (bem entendido, em termos bancários)”. O Paraná Esportivo, em 1960, comentava da vitória do Coritiba de 9x1 sobre o Iraty: “pensar, principalmente, na possibilidade que existe do Ferroviário virar azulão e sair vermelho de vergonha da cancha”. Aqui o vermelho está associado a ter vergonha. Este foi o resultado mais antigo que obtive na hemeroteca digital da Biblioteca Nacional.
Talvez a expressão esteja associada a “nota vermelha”, devido ao hábito de alguns professores ressaltarem a nota ruim dos alunos com uma caneta vermelha. A Wikipedia, no verbete Nota Escolar, diz que este é um critério informal, usado quando o aluno tira uma nota menor que a média.
Economia precisa de modelos baseados em agentes
In today’s high-tech age, one naturally
assumes that US President Barack
Obama’s economic team and its international
counterparts are using sophisticated
quantitative computer models
to guide us out of the current economic
crisis. They are not.
The best models they have are of two
types, both with fatal flaws. Type one is
econometric: empirical statistical models
that are fitted to past data. These successfully
forecast a few quarters ahead
as long as things stay more or less the
same, but fail in the face of great change.
Type two goes by the name of ‘dynamic
stochastic general equilibrium’. These
models assume a perfect world, and by
their very nature rule out crises of the
type we are experiencing now.
As a result, economic policy-makers
are basing their decisions on common
sense, and on anecdotal analogies to
previous crises such as Japan’s ‘lost
decade’ or the Great Depression (see
Nature 457, 957; 2009). The leaders of
the world are flying the economy by the
seat of their pants.
[...]
There is a better way: agent-based models. An agent-based model is a computerized simulation of a number of decision-makers (agents) and institutions, which interact through prescribed rules. The agents can be as diverse as needed — from consumers to policy-makers and Wall Street professionals — and the institutional structure can include everything from banks to the government. Such models do not rely on the assumption that the economy will move towards a predetermined equilibrium state, as other models do. Instead, at any given time, each agent acts according to its current situation, the state of the world around it and the rules governing its behaviour. An individual consumer, for example, might decide whether to save or spend based on the rate of inflation, his or her current optimism about the future, and behavioural rules deduced from psychology experiments. The computer keeps track of the many agent interactions, to see what happens over time. Agent-based simulations can handle a far wider range of nonlinear behaviour than conventional equilibrium models. Policy-makers can thus simulate an artificial economy under different policy scenarios and quantitatively explore their consequences.
[...]
But there is a still larger problem. Even if rational expectations are a reasonable model of human behaviour, the mathematical machinery is cumbersome and requires drastic simplifications to get tractable results. The equilibrium models that were developed, such as those used by the US Federal Reserve, by necessity stripped away most of the structure of a real economy. There are no banks or derivatives, much less sub-prime mortgages or credit default swaps — these introduce too much nonlinearity and complexity for equilibrium methods to handle. When it comes to setting policy, the predictions of these models aren’t even wrong, they are simply non-existent (see Nature 455, 1181; 2008).
Agent-based models potentially present a way to model the financial economy as a complex system, as Keynes attempted to do, while taking human adaptation and learning into account, as Lucas advocated. Such models allow for the creation of a kind of virtual universe, in which many players can act in complex — and realistic — ways. In some other areas of science, such as epidemiology or traffic control, agent-based models already help policy-making.
[...]
Such economic models should be able to provide an alternative tool to give insight into how government policies could affect the broad characteristics of economic performance, by quantitatively exploring how the economy is likely to react under different scenarios. In principle it might even be possible to create an agent-based economic model capable of making useful forecasts of the real economy, although this is ambitious. Creating a carefully crafted agent-based model of the whole economy is, like climate modelling, a huge undertaking. It requires close feedback between simulation, testing, data collection and the development of theory. This demands serious computing power and multidisciplinary collaboration among economists, computer scientists, psychologists, biologists and physical scientists with experience in largescale modelling.
Fonte: The economy needs agent-based modelling- J Doyne Farmer, Duncan Foley-2009/8/6-Nature-Nature 460, 685-686 (6 August 2009) | doi:10.1038/460685a; Published online 5 August 2009
[...]
There is a better way: agent-based models. An agent-based model is a computerized simulation of a number of decision-makers (agents) and institutions, which interact through prescribed rules. The agents can be as diverse as needed — from consumers to policy-makers and Wall Street professionals — and the institutional structure can include everything from banks to the government. Such models do not rely on the assumption that the economy will move towards a predetermined equilibrium state, as other models do. Instead, at any given time, each agent acts according to its current situation, the state of the world around it and the rules governing its behaviour. An individual consumer, for example, might decide whether to save or spend based on the rate of inflation, his or her current optimism about the future, and behavioural rules deduced from psychology experiments. The computer keeps track of the many agent interactions, to see what happens over time. Agent-based simulations can handle a far wider range of nonlinear behaviour than conventional equilibrium models. Policy-makers can thus simulate an artificial economy under different policy scenarios and quantitatively explore their consequences.
[...]
But there is a still larger problem. Even if rational expectations are a reasonable model of human behaviour, the mathematical machinery is cumbersome and requires drastic simplifications to get tractable results. The equilibrium models that were developed, such as those used by the US Federal Reserve, by necessity stripped away most of the structure of a real economy. There are no banks or derivatives, much less sub-prime mortgages or credit default swaps — these introduce too much nonlinearity and complexity for equilibrium methods to handle. When it comes to setting policy, the predictions of these models aren’t even wrong, they are simply non-existent (see Nature 455, 1181; 2008).
Agent-based models potentially present a way to model the financial economy as a complex system, as Keynes attempted to do, while taking human adaptation and learning into account, as Lucas advocated. Such models allow for the creation of a kind of virtual universe, in which many players can act in complex — and realistic — ways. In some other areas of science, such as epidemiology or traffic control, agent-based models already help policy-making.
[...]
Such economic models should be able to provide an alternative tool to give insight into how government policies could affect the broad characteristics of economic performance, by quantitatively exploring how the economy is likely to react under different scenarios. In principle it might even be possible to create an agent-based economic model capable of making useful forecasts of the real economy, although this is ambitious. Creating a carefully crafted agent-based model of the whole economy is, like climate modelling, a huge undertaking. It requires close feedback between simulation, testing, data collection and the development of theory. This demands serious computing power and multidisciplinary collaboration among economists, computer scientists, psychologists, biologists and physical scientists with experience in largescale modelling.
Fonte: The economy needs agent-based modelling- J Doyne Farmer, Duncan Foley-2009/8/6-Nature-Nature 460, 685-686 (6 August 2009) | doi:10.1038/460685a; Published online 5 August 2009
12 maio 2016
Eletrobrás
Segundo o Estadão chama a atenção para o problema da Eletrobrás, que deve atrasar a entrega do balanço nos EUA:
O impasse é considerado mais emergencial porque a estatal tem prazo até o próximo dia 18 de maio para apresentar à SEC formulário referente ao balanço de 2014, que está pedente. A empresa já admitiu ontem em comunicado ao mercado financeiro que poderá não cumprir o prazo de entrega da documentação dos exercícios de 2014 e 2015 e evitar a deslistagem dos seus ADRs, negociados no mercado norte-americano. Caso isso ocorra, fontes do governo avaliam que há risco também de desaceleração da dívida da empresa. Isso significa que os credores da estatal poderão, na prática, cobrar antecipadamente dívidas da companhia.
O impasse é considerado mais emergencial porque a estatal tem prazo até o próximo dia 18 de maio para apresentar à SEC formulário referente ao balanço de 2014, que está pedente. A empresa já admitiu ontem em comunicado ao mercado financeiro que poderá não cumprir o prazo de entrega da documentação dos exercícios de 2014 e 2015 e evitar a deslistagem dos seus ADRs, negociados no mercado norte-americano. Caso isso ocorra, fontes do governo avaliam que há risco também de desaceleração da dívida da empresa. Isso significa que os credores da estatal poderão, na prática, cobrar antecipadamente dívidas da companhia.
Petrobras: a sina continua
- maiores despesas de juros e variações monetárias e cambiais negativas, que atingiram R$ 9.579 milhões;
- redução de 7% da produção de petróleo e gás natural (Brasil e exterior);
- queda de 8% na venda de derivados no mercado doméstico;
- aumento dos custos com depreciação; e
- maiores gastos com ociosidade de equipamentos, principalmente de sondas.
Mas a empresa destacou o Ebitda Ajustado (sem nenhuma relevância), o fluxo de caixa livre positivo (decorrente da redução drástica do investimento), redução do endividamento bruto para 450 bilhões de reais (quase isto) (mas que aumentou em dólar).
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