Propaganda do Inkano Bank (vídeo)
O sistema operacional mais usado do mundo
Em Zootopia um personagem quer ser auditor
Terno Pac-Man por US$110
Os melhores e os piores atores de Hollywood
12 abril 2016
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Propaganda do Inkano Bank (vídeo)
O sistema operacional mais usado do mundo
Em Zootopia um personagem quer ser auditor
Terno Pac-Man por US$110
Os melhores e os piores atores de Hollywood
O uso indevido de Modelos Teóricos em Finanças e Economia
Resumo:
In this essay I discuss how theoretical models in finance and economics are used in ways that make them “chameleons” and how chameleons devalue the intellectual currency and muddy policy debates. A model becomes a chameleon when it is built on assumptions with dubious connections to the real world but nevertheless has conclusions that are uncritically (or not critically enough) applied to understanding our economy. I discuss how chameleons are created and nurtured by the mistaken notion that one should not judge a model by its assumptions, by the unfounded argument that models should have equal standing until definitive empirical tests are conducted, and by misplaced appeals to “as-if” arguments, mathematical elegance, subtlety, references to assumptions that are “standard in the literature,” and the need for tractability.
Fonte: Chameleons: The Misuse of Theoretical Models in Finance and EconomicsPaul Pfleiderer, March 2014
In this essay I discuss how theoretical models in finance and economics are used in ways that make them “chameleons” and how chameleons devalue the intellectual currency and muddy policy debates. A model becomes a chameleon when it is built on assumptions with dubious connections to the real world but nevertheless has conclusions that are uncritically (or not critically enough) applied to understanding our economy. I discuss how chameleons are created and nurtured by the mistaken notion that one should not judge a model by its assumptions, by the unfounded argument that models should have equal standing until definitive empirical tests are conducted, and by misplaced appeals to “as-if” arguments, mathematical elegance, subtlety, references to assumptions that are “standard in the literature,” and the need for tractability.
Fonte: Chameleons: The Misuse of Theoretical Models in Finance and EconomicsPaul Pfleiderer, March 2014
11 abril 2016
Questionário: escritório físico e virtual
Prezados,
a Camila Barreto precisa de contadores com escritórios para responder o questionário: Mudança da localização de trabalho físico ou virtual interfere na abertura e no desenvolvimento dos trabalhos do Contador? Disponível: aqui.
Por favor respondam e divulguem.
a Camila Barreto precisa de contadores com escritórios para responder o questionário: Mudança da localização de trabalho físico ou virtual interfere na abertura e no desenvolvimento dos trabalhos do Contador? Disponível: aqui.
Por favor respondam e divulguem.
Modelos DSGE são úteis? Não
Resumo:
DSGE models are a prominent tool for forecasting at central banks and the competitive forecasting performance of these models relative to alternatives–including official forecasts–has been documented. When evaluating DSGE models on an absolute basis, however, we find that the benchmark estimated medium scale DSGE model forecasts inflation and GDP growth very poorly, although statistical and judgmental forecasts forecast as poorly. Our finding is the DSGE model analogue of the literature documenting the recent poor performance of macroeconomic forecasts relative to simple naive forecasts since the onset of the Great Moderation. While this finding is broadly consistent with the DSGE model we employ–ie, the model itself implies that under strong monetary policy especially inflation deviations should be unpredictable–a “wrong” model may also have the same implication. We therefore argue that forecasting ability during the Great Moderation is not a good metric to judge the usefulness of model forecasts.
Fonte: How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?
DSGE models are a prominent tool for forecasting at central banks and the competitive forecasting performance of these models relative to alternatives–including official forecasts–has been documented. When evaluating DSGE models on an absolute basis, however, we find that the benchmark estimated medium scale DSGE model forecasts inflation and GDP growth very poorly, although statistical and judgmental forecasts forecast as poorly. Our finding is the DSGE model analogue of the literature documenting the recent poor performance of macroeconomic forecasts relative to simple naive forecasts since the onset of the Great Moderation. While this finding is broadly consistent with the DSGE model we employ–ie, the model itself implies that under strong monetary policy especially inflation deviations should be unpredictable–a “wrong” model may also have the same implication. We therefore argue that forecasting ability during the Great Moderation is not a good metric to judge the usefulness of model forecasts.
Fonte: How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?
10 abril 2016
Grupo Espírito Santo e Panama Papers
El Grupo Espírito Santo (GES), uno de los principales emporios empresariales de Portugal hasta su colapso en 2014, mantuvo una contabilidad paralela en secreto durante 21 años, según figura en los papeles de Panamá.
El GES utilizaba la empresa Espírito Santo Enterprises -creada en 1993- para realizar pagos fuera de los circuitos oficiales, según publica el semanario luso Expresso, uno de los medios que integra el Consorcio de Periodistas de Investigación (ICIJ, en ingles) que destapó el escándalo.
Por la compañía -que ya se encontraba en el punto de mira de la Fiscalía lusa- pasaron más de 300 millones de euros y sirvió para entregar "dinero y patrimonio de forma camuflada a destinatarios todavía no identificados".
La ES Enterprises, que no apareció nunca en las cuentas oficiales del grupo, fue creada en 1993 por el núcleo duro de la familia Espírito Santo y estaba presidida por Ricardo Salgado, expresidente del Banco Espírito Santo. (...)
Fonte: Aqui
El GES utilizaba la empresa Espírito Santo Enterprises -creada en 1993- para realizar pagos fuera de los circuitos oficiales, según publica el semanario luso Expresso, uno de los medios que integra el Consorcio de Periodistas de Investigación (ICIJ, en ingles) que destapó el escándalo.
Por la compañía -que ya se encontraba en el punto de mira de la Fiscalía lusa- pasaron más de 300 millones de euros y sirvió para entregar "dinero y patrimonio de forma camuflada a destinatarios todavía no identificados".
La ES Enterprises, que no apareció nunca en las cuentas oficiales del grupo, fue creada en 1993 por el núcleo duro de la familia Espírito Santo y estaba presidida por Ricardo Salgado, expresidente del Banco Espírito Santo. (...)
Fonte: Aqui
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