02 outubro 2015
Vale a pena ser empreendedor? Risco x Retorno e os ganhos da experimentação
Previous studies have argued that entrepreneurs earn less and bear more risk than salaried workers with otherwise similar characteristics. In a simple model of entrepreneurship, I show that estimates of mean and variance of returns to entrepreneurship used by these previous studies are biased, as they are based on cross-sectional data and fail to account for the option value of experimenting with new ideas. Using longitudinal data, I find patterns that are consistent with entrepreneurship as experimentation and returns to entrepreneurship that are more attractive than established by previous research.
Manso, Gustavo, Experimentation and the Returns to Entrepreneurship (November 18, 2014). Available at : http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2527034
Manso, Gustavo, Experimentation and the Returns to Entrepreneurship (November 18, 2014). Available at : http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2527034
Decisões financeiras mudam com o envelhecimento
As the global population ages, older decision makers will be required to take greater responsibility for their own physical, psychological and financial well-being. With this in mind, researchers have begun to examine the effects of ageing on decision making and associated neural circuits. A new ‘affect-integration-motivation’ (AIM) framework may help to clarify how affective and motivational circuits support decision making. Recent research has shed light on whether and how ageing influences these circuits, providing an interdisciplinary account of how ageing can alter decision making.
Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R. and Knutson, Brian, Decision Making in the Ageing Brain: Changes in Affective and Motivational Circuits (May 1, 2015). Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 16 (5), 278-289.. Available at SSRN:http://ssrn.com/abstract=2657045
01 outubro 2015
Preferências por Números na Loteria
Está aí um estudo interessante sobre o comportamento das pessoas na escolha de números de duas loterias na Holanda. Os pesquisadores mostram evidências que a escolha dos números segue algumas regras e que em geral os indivíduos são enganados pela aleatoriedade. Eles descobriram que :
1) Pessoas que jogam com menos frequência buscam marcar números que foram sorteados em concursos recentes. Enquanto, jogadores mais habituais evitam esses números;
2) Os jogadores tendem a escolher números que estão no centro do volante e evitam os cantos do bilhete;
3) Números pessoais como data de aniversários, número de telefone tendem a serem mais escolhidos;
4) Indivíduos tendem marcar o volante com um olhar sobre a simetria e estética dos números no papel;
5) Números que estão na memória de curto-prazo tendem a ser mais escolhidos.
E você, caro leitor, se identifica com algum desses padrões encontrados no momento da escolha dos números?
Resumo:
We explore people’s preferences for numbers in large proprietary data sets from two different lottery games. We find that players spread their four or six numbers relatively evenly across the possible range, and that they chase (infrequent players) or avoid (frequent players) winning numbers from recent draws. Furthermore, players are attracted towards numbers in the center of the choice form and avoid the edges, and they tend to choose numbers that are readily available or likely to be “primed” in their short-term memory. Personally relevant numbers are favored, and combinations of numbers are being formed with an eye for symmetry and aesthetics. Altogether, our results suggest that number preferences in lotteries are especially driven by joy seeking, attention, and misunderstanding of randomness.
Potter van Loon, Rogier J.D. and Van den Assem, Martijn J. and Van Dolder, Dennie and Wang, Tong V., Number Preferences in Lotteries (August 2015). Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2657776
Resumo:
We explore people’s preferences for numbers in large proprietary data sets from two different lottery games. We find that players spread their four or six numbers relatively evenly across the possible range, and that they chase (infrequent players) or avoid (frequent players) winning numbers from recent draws. Furthermore, players are attracted towards numbers in the center of the choice form and avoid the edges, and they tend to choose numbers that are readily available or likely to be “primed” in their short-term memory. Personally relevant numbers are favored, and combinations of numbers are being formed with an eye for symmetry and aesthetics. Altogether, our results suggest that number preferences in lotteries are especially driven by joy seeking, attention, and misunderstanding of randomness.
Potter van Loon, Rogier J.D. and Van den Assem, Martijn J. and Van Dolder, Dennie and Wang, Tong V., Number Preferences in Lotteries (August 2015). Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2657776
Por que Atitude é mais importante que QI?
When it comes to success, it's easy to think that people blessed with brains will inevitably leave the rest of us in the dust. But new research from Stanford University will change your mind (and your attitude).
Psychologist Carol Dweck has spent her entire career studying attitude and performance, and her latest study shows that your attitude is a better predictor of your success than your IQ.
Dweck found that people's core attitudes fall into one of two categories: a fixed mindset or a growth mindset.
With a fixed mindset, you believe that you are who you are and you cannot change. This creates problems when you're challenged because anything that appears to be more than you can handle is bound to make you feel hopeless and overwhelmed.
People with a growth mindset believe that they can improve with effort. They outperform those with a fixed mindset, even when they have a lower IQ, because they embrace challenges, treating them as opportunities to learn something new.
Common sense would suggest that having ability, like being smart, inspires confidence. It does, but only while the going is easy. The deciding factor in life is how you handle setbacks and challenges. People with a growth mindset welcome setbacks with open arms.
According to Dweck, success in life is all about how you deal with failure. She describes the approach to failure of people with the growth mindset this way,
"Failure is information—we label it failure, but it's more like, 'This didn't work, and I'm a problem solver, so I'll try something else.'"
Regardless of which side of the chart you fall on, you can make changes and develop a growth mindset.
Psychologist Carol Dweck has spent her entire career studying attitude and performance, and her latest study shows that your attitude is a better predictor of your success than your IQ.
Dweck found that people's core attitudes fall into one of two categories: a fixed mindset or a growth mindset.
With a fixed mindset, you believe that you are who you are and you cannot change. This creates problems when you're challenged because anything that appears to be more than you can handle is bound to make you feel hopeless and overwhelmed.
People with a growth mindset believe that they can improve with effort. They outperform those with a fixed mindset, even when they have a lower IQ, because they embrace challenges, treating them as opportunities to learn something new.
Common sense would suggest that having ability, like being smart, inspires confidence. It does, but only while the going is easy. The deciding factor in life is how you handle setbacks and challenges. People with a growth mindset welcome setbacks with open arms.
According to Dweck, success in life is all about how you deal with failure. She describes the approach to failure of people with the growth mindset this way,
"Failure is information—we label it failure, but it's more like, 'This didn't work, and I'm a problem solver, so I'll try something else.'"
Regardless of which side of the chart you fall on, you can make changes and develop a growth mindset.
[...]
Fonte: aqui
Empurrão no Setor Público
O New York Times relatou uma experiência interessante feita pelo governo federal dos Estados Unidos. Nas solicitações de produtos e serviços, o fornecedor passou a assinar o formulário no início e não no final. O resultado foi uma economia de 1,59 milhões de dólares durante os três meses de experimento.
Este tipo de mudança foi apresentado por Richard Thaler (e Cass Sunstein) no livro Nudge. A idéia é que pequenas mudanças podem fazer diferença no comportamento das pessoas. O exemplo interessante citado por Thaler é a pintura de uma mosca no mictório dos homens, que reduziu a quantidade de líquido despejada fora do local apropriado.
Ainda segundo o jornal, a Casa Branca anunciou a criação do Social and Behavioral Sciences Team para encorajar estes experimentos. No passado, quando era chefe de Departamento na minha universidade, fiz um experimento deste tipo. Diante da reclamação do funcionário de que as pessoas levavam as canetas Bic para casa, comprei duas ou três canetas da Xuxa, coloridas e chamativas. Meses depois este funcionário deu o depoimento de que a caneta ainda estava sendo usada e que as pessoas lembravam que a caneta não era sua.
Este tipo de mudança foi apresentado por Richard Thaler (e Cass Sunstein) no livro Nudge. A idéia é que pequenas mudanças podem fazer diferença no comportamento das pessoas. O exemplo interessante citado por Thaler é a pintura de uma mosca no mictório dos homens, que reduziu a quantidade de líquido despejada fora do local apropriado.
Ainda segundo o jornal, a Casa Branca anunciou a criação do Social and Behavioral Sciences Team para encorajar estes experimentos. No passado, quando era chefe de Departamento na minha universidade, fiz um experimento deste tipo. Diante da reclamação do funcionário de que as pessoas levavam as canetas Bic para casa, comprei duas ou três canetas da Xuxa, coloridas e chamativas. Meses depois este funcionário deu o depoimento de que a caneta ainda estava sendo usada e que as pessoas lembravam que a caneta não era sua.
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