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08 março 2013

Custo por Genoma

O gráfico (obtido num artigo sobre Hadoop) mostra o custo por genoma, de 2001 até os dias de hoje. A linha reta é a lei de Moore, usada para indicar o custo decrescente dos chips. É nítido que o progresso científico conseguiu reduzir, em escala substancial, o custo de sequenciar um genoma humano: de 100 milhões para o preço de um carro usado.

Prioridades do Iasb

O International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) pretende completar a abordagem conceitual em setembro de 2015. Além disto, segundo o Journal of Accountancy, a entidade pretende implementar e manter alguns projetos de IFRS (normas internacionais). Para isto, o Iasb mapeou sugestões e críticas, que resultaram num conjunto de projetos prioritários.

Em primeiro lugar, obviamente, a abordagem conceitual - suspensa em 2010 - terá elevada prioridade, mas não será conduzida em conjunto com o Fasb. Está previsto uma minuta sobre o assunto para junho de 2013. Além das revisões de padrões, como combinações de negócios, nove projetos foram identificados: 

• Emissions trading schemes.
• Business combinations under common control.
• Discount rates.
• Equity method of accounting.
• Intangible assets; extractive activities; and research and development activities.
• Financial instruments with the characteristics of equity.
• Foreign currency translation.
• Nonfinancial liabilities (amendments to IAS 37, Provisions, Contingent Liabilities and Contingent
Assets).
• Financial reporting in high-inflationary economies.

Malditos preços, benditos preços

Os preços atraem muita emoção quando se mexem. É natural, alguns ganham e outros perdem. Mas os preços fazem parte do funcionamento das economias. Há preços dos bens e serviços, mas também do trabalho (salário), do dinheiro e do tempo (juros), das empresas (ações) e até da nossa moeda em relação às outras (câmbio). A tentação dos governos é mantê-los sob mira curta, por diversas razões. Certamente para combater a inflação e evitar excessos derivados de monopólios, porém, em alguns casos, para tentar influenciar os rumos da economia.

A questão é que os preços têm um papel público também: eles sinalizam quando sobra ou falta algo. Afinal, a lei mais conhecida da economia é a da demanda e oferta, em que os preços sobem quando falta o produto e caem quando sobra. Um preço subindo pode não ser apenas sinal de injustiça ou inflação, mas de escassez ou ineficiência que mereça atenção. A liberdade dos preços traz a transparência necessária para ajudar na correção de rumos, muitas vezes de forma natural, quando eles sobem para reduzir o consumo e aumentar a oferta (ou vice-versa).

É mais fácil concordar com a liberdade de preços de peixes, frutas e verduras do que de outros preços da economia. Estocar esses produtos é difícil e requer flutuação dos preços para equilibrar o mercado. Todavia também é importante permitir a flutuação de alguns preços menos óbvios, cuja informação é relevante para a economia.

Um exemplo clássico é o preço da gasolina. Muitos países têm regras para determiná-lo. Mas se o preço da gasolina se afasta da cotação internacional por muito tempo acaba gerando distorções. O consumo não se adapta ao preço internacional mais alto (relacionado ao que pode ser importado ou exportado). E quem vai ofertar não tem o sinal do preço correto para decidir quanto investe na produção. No limite, as estatais podem ser obrigadas a importar por valor mais alto do que vendem no mercado doméstico, o que pode levar a prejuízos importantes.

Prejuízos alteram outro preço significativo da economia: o das ações de empresas. Quedas sistemáticas e relevantes das ações refletem mudança do valor das empresas, um sinal de alerta importante. É necessário avaliar o que está causando a destruição desse valor e, caso necessário, realizar mudanças fundamentais.

Os juros básicos, determinados pelo Banco Central, são também um preço importante da economia. Quando os juros sobem, normalmente é sinal de pressões inflacionárias e de ciclo de atividade em alta. Quando caem, o inverso: inflação recuando e/ou atividade fraca. O Banco Central faz bem em insistir que os ciclos ainda não foram abolidos no Brasil, sinalizando que os juros podem eventualmente subir ou descer, apesar da mensagem básica de que devem ficar no atual patamar por um tempo prolongado.

Outro preço importante é a taxa de câmbio, que reflete o valor dos nossos bens relativos aos preços internacionais (ou comercializáveis, aqueles determinados no mercado internacional). No curto prazo, o câmbio pode ser determinado pelo governo, tanto mais quanto mais reservas tiver e mais controles de capitais introduzir. No longo prazo, o câmbio vai ser o que equilibrar as necessidades da economia, isto é, o câmbio consistente com um saldo na balança comercial e de serviços, compatível com persistentes entradas de capitais que, por sua vez, ajudem a financiar os investimentos necessários para o crescimento sustentado da economia. Uma taxa de câmbio mais depreciada que o equilíbrio de longo prazo (que leve a uma balança mais alta e a uma escassez de poupança externa, dado o investimento necessário) vai acabar gerando uma inflação corretiva, devolvendo o valor do câmbio real ao seu equilíbrio.

O salário é o preço do trabalho na economia. Reflete o excesso ou a escassez de mão de obra. Nos últimos anos os salários têm subido acima da inflação, refletindo crescimento maior da demanda que da oferta. A demanda tem aumentado por causa do crescimento mais forte dos setores intensivos em mão de obra (serviços, por exemplo), enquanto a oferta tem sido afetada por um crescimento mais lento da força de trabalho (por questões demográficas, entre outras). Reduzir os encargos da folha de pagamentos pode aliviar as empresas, individualmente, contudo não altera a falta de oferta e a necessidade de maior produtividade da mão de obra. Medidas que incentivem maior demanda por trabalho podem exacerbar o descompasso atual com a oferta. A competitividade da economia depende de a produtividade crescer acima (ou na proporção) do aumento dos salários.

Finalmente, os preços da energia elétrica também variam, apesar de ser um setor naturalmente mais regulado pelo governo. Quando há sobra (ou falta) de energia, esta é vendida no mercado livre a preços menores (ou maiores). Com os reservatórios das hidrelétricas mais baixos no final do ano, os preços no mercado livre subiram, sinalizando oferta menor. Da mesma forma, quando as termoelétricas, mais caras, são ligadas, em momentos de escassez, preços maiores acabam sendo repassados ao consumidor. Esse aumento é necessário para o consumidor agir a fim de economizar o necessário.

Os preços ajudam-nos a identificar escassez e ineficiências e a desenhar políticas para correção de rumos. Muitas vezes há exageros. A regulação dos mercados é fundamental. Mas não podemos dispensar o sistema de preços como um guia importante do que acontece na economia. É necessário observar os preços da economia para sinalizar escassez, excessos ou ineficiências e tomar medidas fundamentais para corrigir os problemas. Sem isso o risco é de gerar distorções na economia maiores do que qualquer flutuação excessiva de preços pudesse ter ocasionado.

100 fatos sobre economia norte-americana


In no particular order...
1. As of January 2013, there are 16 people left in the world who were born in the 1800s, according to the Gerontology Research Group. With dividends reinvested, U.S. stocks have increased 28,000-fold during their lifetimes.
2. If you divide their net worths by their age, Carlos Slim and Bill Gates have each accumulated more than $100,000 in net worth for every hour they've been alive.
4. According to the Deutsche Bank Long-Term Asset Return Study, the last time interest rates were near current levels, in the 1950s, Treasury bonds lost 40% of their inflation-adjusted value over the following three decades.
5. According to a study by Harvard professor David Wise and two colleagues, 46.1% of Americans die with less than $10,000 in assets.
9. "U.S. oil production grew more in 2012 than in any year in the history of the domestic industry, which began in 1859," writes Tom Fowler of The Wall Street Journal.
10. "Last year, for the first time, spending by Apple and Google on patent lawsuits and unusually big-dollar patent purchases exceeded spending on research and development of new products," writes The New York Times.
13. Adjusting for inflation, Warren Buffett was a millionaire by age 25.
14. Including dividends, the S&P 500 gained 135% from March 2009 through January 2013, during what people remember as the "Great Recession." It gained the exact same amount from 1996 to 2000, during what people remember as the "greatest bull market in history."
15. "97% of the world's population now lives in countries where the fertility rate is falling," writes author Jonathan Last.
16. The U.K. economy is 3.3% smaller than it was in 2008. The U.S. economy is 2.9% larger (both adjusted for inflation).
17. In 1980, there were 15,099 Americans aged 100 years or more. By 1990, there were 36,486, and by 2012 there were 88,510, according to the Census Bureau.
18. Dell "has spent more money on share repurchases than it earned throughout its life as a public company," writes Floyd Norris of The New York Times.
19. From 2006 to 2011, Hewlett-Packard spent $51 billion on share repurchases at an average price of $40.80 per share. Shares currently trade at $16.50.
20. The International Labour Organization estimates a record 200 million people will be unemployed around the world in 2013. If you gave them their own country, it would be the fifth-largest in the world.
21. Despite the overall population doubling, more babies were born in the U.S. in 1956 than were born in 2009, 2010, or 2011.
22. According to The Telegraph, "Four in 10 girls born today is expected to live to 100. ... If trends continue, the majority of girls born in 2060 — some 60 per cent — will live to see 2160."
23. Apple's cash and investments are now equal to the GDP of Hungary and more than those of Vietnam and Iraq.
26. U.S. charitable giving was $298 billion in 2011, according to the Giving USA Foundation. That's more than the GDP of all but 33 countries in the world.
27. According to Bloomberg, "The 50 stocks in the S&P 500 with the lowest analyst ratings at the end of 2011 posted an average return of 23 percent [in 2012], outperforming the index by 7 percentage points."
28. "Globally, the production of a given quantity of crop requires 65% less land than it did in 1961," writes author Matt Ridley.
29. Thanks in large part to cellphone cameras, "Ten percent of all of the photographs made in the entire history of photography were made last year," according to Time.
31. Since 2008, Americans have donated $19.1 million to the U.S. Treasury to help pay down the national debt.
32. Fortune magazine published an article titled "10 Stocks To Last the Decade" in August, 2000. By December 2012, the portfolio had lost 74.3% of its value, according to analyst Barry Ritholtz.
34. According to a study by Environics Analytics WealthScapes, the average Canadian household is now richer than an average American household for the first time ever.
39. Growth in America's energy output since 2008 has surpassed that of any other country in the world, according to energy analyst Daniel Yergin.
45. One in seven crimes committed in New York City now involves an Apple product being stolen, according to NYPD records cited by ABC News.
46. In the first quarter of 2012, the number of iPhones Apple sold per day surpassed the number of babies born per day worldwide (402,000 vs. 300,000), according to Mobile First.
48. According to economist Glen Weyl, "Of Harvard students graduating in early '90s and pursuing careers in finance, 1/3 were making over $1 million a year by 2005."
52. The number of workers aged 55 and up is about to surpass the number of workers aged 24 to 34 for the first time ever.
53. In 2011, Asia had more millionaires than North America for the first time ever, according to RBC Wealth Management.
55. The IRS estimates that illegal tax-evasion reduced government tax revenue by $450 billion in 2006 (the most recent year calculated). That's roughly equal to what the government spends annually on Medicare.
60. The International Energy Agency predicts that the U.S. will become the world's largest oil-producer by 2020, overtaking Saudi Arabia.
61. According to CNBC wealth reporter Robert Frank, the population of millionaires in America is now at or above its 2007 high.
63. Public filings show that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has owned stock in just one individual company over the last decade: Altria Group (which he sold in 2004).
64. Renaissance Technologies, a hedge fund run by James Simons, has allegedly produced average returns of 80% a year since 1988 (before fees), according to Bloomberg. That would turn $1,000 into $2.4 billion in 25 years.
67. During the Federal Reserve's June 2007 policy meeting, the word "recession" was used three times; the word "strong" was used 61 times. The economy entered recession six months later.
70. "Of the Americans who earn over $150,000, 82 percent had a bachelor's degree. Just 6.5 percent had no more than a high school diploma," writes Catherine Rampell of The New York Times.
71. According to a survey by Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales, effectively all economists agreed that stock prices are hard to predict. Only 59% of average Americans felt the same way.
73. Credit card debt as a percentage of GDP is now at the lowest level in two decades.
86. According to Wired magazine, "In a 2006 survey, 30 percent of people without a high school degree said that playing the lottery was a wealth-building strategy. ... On average, households that make less than $12,400 a year spend 5 percent of their income on lotteries."
88. We are used to hearing how much faster the earnings of the top 1% grow compared with everyone else's, but we often forget that it used to be the other way around. From 1943 to 1980, the annual incomes of the bottom 90% of Americans doubled in real terms, while the average income of the top 1% grew just 23%, according to Robert Frank.
94. According to The Economist, "Over the past ten years, hedge-fund managers have underperformed not just the stock market, but inflation as well."
97. S&P 500 companies held $900 billion in cash at the end of June, according to Thomson Reuters. That was up 40% since 2008.
98. "More than 50 million Americans couldn't afford to buy food at some point in 2011," writes CNNMoney, citing U.S. Department of Agriculture data. In June 2012, 46.7 million Americans received food stamps.
99. Japan's working-age population is on track to decline from 62.6% of its population in 2012 to just 49.1% by 2050.
100. The unemployment rate for those with a bachelor's degree is just 3.7% — less than half the nationwide average.
Fonte: aqui











Você acredita em aquecimento global?

Primeiro uma entrevista com Luiz Carlos Molion e, depois, um texto do historiador britânico Paul Johnson:

THE REAL WAY TO SAVE THE PLANET


It is a pity Karl Popper did not live to see that Global Warming fitted perfectly into his model of a pseudo-theory.

The Copenhagen Summit was bound to fail if only because politicians are beginning to realize that ordinary voters do not believe in man-made Global Warming, as polls plainly show. They did not believe in Marxist Dialectical Materialism either, or Freudianism. These three pseudo-sciences have a lot in common, not least their ability to inspire a religious kind of belief in highly educated people who lack a genuine creed.

When I was an undergraduate the philosopher I studied most carefully was Karl Popper, especially his writings on the evaluation of evidence and criteria to distinguish a genuine scientific theory from a false one. He made two key points. First, a theory must include the falsifiability principle. It must be susceptible to empirical tests and, if it fails to meet them, be scrapped. He gave as an example of a genuine theory Einstein’s General Relativity of 1915. Einstein insisted that it must survive three practical tests, and if it failed any one of them be dropped as untrue. In fact it passed triumphantly all three, beginning in 1919, and many other since.

Popper argued that prima facie evidence of a bogus theory was the practice of altering or enlarging it, by its authors, to accommodate new evidence since its original formulation. This, he argued, had happened in the case of Marxism and, still more, Freudianism. Scientific theories, he argued, must be very precise and scientific to be of any use. Marxism and Freudianism were just portmanteau notions into which virtually any kind of phenomena could be made to fit. Hence Marxism led to political and economic disaster areas like the Soviet Union, and Freudianism to a stupendous waste of time and money.

It is a pity Popper did not live to see that Global Warming fit perfectly into his model of a pseudo-theory. It is vaguely and imprecisely formulated. It fails the falsifiability test, because all new evidence is made to fit by enlarging the theory. When originally formulated in the 1980s, Global Warming produced by man-made emissions would lead, it was argued, to much higher temperatures and desiccation. There would be a huge drop in rainfall and an imperative need to build seawater desalination plants. I recall an unusually dry summer (1987) in the English Lake District, normally rainy, was triumphantly presented as “absolute proof” of the theory. This autumn, the Lake District had an unusually wet spell, culminating in floods that engulfed the delightful town of Cockermouth, where Wordsworth was born. This was pounced upon by Global Warming “experts” as “absolute proof” of their theory, and paraded as such in Copenhagen.

The fact is that the theory has now been expanded to include any unusual form of weather, anywhere. Hot summers, warm winters — global warming. Cold weather at an unusual time of year — global warming. Drought, storms, floods — global warming. No snow on the ski slopes, sudden snow, out of season snow, very heavy snow — global warming. Of course in countries like Japan or the UK, where unusual, unpredictable, and tiresomely variable weather is the norm (it was first commented on in the UK by the Venerable Bede in the eighth century), the public does not swallow global warming, and polls show majorities of 55 to 60 percent reject it.

Of course vested interests accept it. It is regarded as a splendid way of damaging the American economy, by the same kind of left-wing intellectuals who supported the Club of Rome in the 1960s, which argued that world resources were on the brink of exhaustion. It is a form of pantheism and a useful emotional outlet for people who have renounced Judeo-Christianity. If someone is anti-American, left-liberal, and atheist, it is virtually certain he (or even she: women are notoriously more skeptical about it than men are) is a Global Warmer.
THEN AGAIN, GLOBAL WARMING NOW HAS a powerful, worldwide institutional substructure. If a media outlet has an environment correspondent, or a university a Department of Climate Studies, or a government a Ministry of Global Warming, those involved are certain to be not just believers but fanatical propagandists for the cause. Their livelihood depends on it. I calculate that the lobby now includes over 20,000 full-time, well-paid professionals whose entire life is spent in pushing “proofs.” The existence of this enormous phalanx of well-placed, articulate enthusiasts has inevitably led to the capture of powerful institutions — in Britain, for instance, the Meteorological Office, the Royal Society, and the BBC, together with many universities and newspapers. It used to be supposed that scientists, or those calling themselves such, were incorruptible and guided purely by genuine convictions based on objective evidence. But scientists behave just like politicians if the pressure and prizes make it worth their while to conform.

So vast sums of money will continue to be spent on an unproven and unprovable theory, predicting a global catastrophe from the realms of fantasy. The money could be much more profitably spent on space exploration. This is a genuine science and could turn out to be useful, even vital. The planet Earth, though not threatened with destruction by man-made global warming, is by no means indestructible. There are many unpredictable events within our solar system, and still more outside it, that could make Earth uninhabitable by humans. A meteorite of sufficient size could destroy it entirely. A giant sunspot could produce precisely the catastrophic climate change the lobby falsely claims is being created by man’s “emissions.” There are hundreds of fatal possibilities astrophysicists can imagine, and thousands more, no doubt, that could occur.

In the long term, it is desirable that the human race, faced with the prospect of extinction on Earth, should prepare an escape route for itself to another inhabitable planet. In order to do this we must explore the universe far more thoroughly and exhaustively than we have done up till now, and equally important, develop the concept of mass space travel and colonization schemes. Mankind has done this before, notably in the 15th century, when the threat of plague and starvation in Europe led to the successful crossing of the Atlantic and colonization in the Americas. We need to repeat the imaginative effort of the late medieval Spanish, Portuguese, and Genoans in navigation, technology, and courage, but on an infinitely greater scale. This would be a worthy cause for the united resources of the human race to combine in furthering — the colonization of the universe.

It may be a distant goal, but it is a practical one, and in pursuing it we would do more to unite the human race in purposeful activity than anything else so far proposed. By contrast, combating a largely imaginary threat of global warming is just as costly, as well as scientifically unsound, technologically impossible, and, not least, divisive

07 março 2013

Mudando com os tempos

Balance Sheet Spreadsheet
[Spartanburg, SC] I am sitting in a USC Upstate computer lab as I write this. Why?

My students are taking a test. Instead of forcing them work everything by hand with a calculator, I’m letting them work any part of the test on a MS Excel. When done, they can e-mail their file, and turn in anything they wrote by hand on the original test copy.

One of the courses I’m teaching this semester is Intermediate Accounting 2. The focus of this course is on the right side of the balance sheet. The first topics are accounting for loans and bonds. I emphasize amortization tables to aid in generating numbers for financial statements. I also emphasize using spreadsheets and good techniques (i.e., a diamond organization and using the round function). So when it came time for the test, some students asked if they could work appropriate parts on a spreadsheet.

Concordia College students asked for the same accommodation a year ago. Everyone there was happy with the experience, so I’m trying it again.

This is the first accounting or finance class in which my students get to use Excel. Wow! Very unfortunate, IMHO.

Professors need to adjust to the times. I’ve been using spreadsheets in class since 1984 at Andrews University. Why not emphasize them so much students will need them as an essential tool to take an exam.

Oh, I also have a series of spreadsheet assignments for each upper level accounting course I teach. I’m the only accounting prof at my school to do so.


Debit and credit – - David Albrecht

Índice Dow Jones


O índice Dow Jones, que mede a variação do preço das ações de 30 das principais empresas negociadas na Bolsa de Valores de Nova York, bateu recorde ontem ao atingir o seu maior valor em toda a história, fechando em 14.253,77 pontos, uma elevação de 0,9%.
A marca anterior era de cinco anos e meio atrás, em outubro de 2007, cerca de um ano antes do colapso do mercado financeiro americano com a quebra do banco Lehman Brothers e a implosão do setor imobiliário. Em março de 2009, o Dow Jones havia caído para metade do nível anterior, antes de recomeçar uma lenta recuperação.
No fim do pregão, depois de tocar o sino anunciando o término das negociações, os operadores celebraram o resultado. Alguns analistas alertavam, porém, que o recorde oculta a real situação de fragilidade da economia e do mercado financeiro americano.

[...]Jeff Cox, principal analista financeiro da rede de TV CNBC, voltada para a cobertura econômica, lembrou que, ao "se ajustar para a inflação em dólares, o índice Dow Jones precisaria ultrapassar 15.731,54 para bater o recorde" estabelecido há mais de cinco anos. Alguns analistas avaliavam ontem que ainda há condições de o mercado prosseguir nesta tendência de alta até atingir 18 mil pontos. Outros estavam mais céticos. As bolsas europeias permanecem distantes de seus recordes estabelecidos anos atrás.