Novo indicador

A revista Forbes traz uma reportagem sobre um indicador de previsão denominado F ("F Is for Fudging; Want to spot weak accounting before there is an embarrassing restatement? Fabulous earnings and a goodwill-rich balance sheet are a good place to start, de Daniel Fisher, Forbes, 29/10/2007, v. 180, n. 9).

Este indicador foi criado por pesquisadores norte-americanos a partir da observaçãoade problemas contábeis ocorridos com empresas daquele país. A pesquisa foi realizada por Patricia Dechow e mais três colegas e consistiu na obtenção de um algoritmo que pudesse verificar se a empresa fez algo errado na sua contabilidade.

O índice mostra sensível para empresas que cresceram muito em termos de ativo, que pode ser considerado um padrão de eficiência, mas também de desastre.

Dechow's research doesn't purport to show that any of these companies are manipulating earnings. What it suggests is that they deserve a closer look. One key signal: the simultaneous occurrence of rising cash sales and a cash margin rate that is falling. "Cash sales" here means revenue minus the increase in accounts receivable. For "cash margin" you subtract from cash sales the sum of the cost of goods sold and the increase in inventory, and divide the result by cash sales. A confluence of these two trends could mean the company is extending credit to customers to make sales and building excess inventory. Enron displayed this combination in 2000.

The F-formula also penalizes companies with fast-rising stock prices that trade at high multiples of book value, perhaps because managers of such companies feel pressed to continue their winning streak. It penalizes them for goodwill that rises faster than cash revenue.

(...) Dechow's research builds on more than a decade of studies into so-called accruals, that being a catchall term to describe the divergence of book profits and cash results. A company piling up inventory and receivables, or capitalizing its expenses, can report terrific book profits at the same time that its bank account dwindles and it verges on bankruptcy. Apart from causing a liquidity problem, a rise in accruals suggests that managers are stretching the rules of accounting to report rosy results. Dechow's husband, Richard Sloan, whom she met at the University of Western Australia in the late 1980s, wrote some of the earliest papers showing that high-accrual firms tend to have lower stock returns.

(...) For their latest study Dechow and her colleagues broadened the search past accruals to include 27 variables they thought might predict earnings puffery. They identified 411 firms that had been sanctioned by the sec for manipulating at least one account between 1982 and 2005, and with some statistical analysis came up with the F-score, which, they say, reflects the odds a company will join those 411. One weakness in this kind of scoring is that companies may already be manipulating their way around it. If managers now know their stock will be penalized for high accruals, they may massage cash flow instead.

Revista

Recebi o número 24 da Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios, publicada pela FECAP. A RBGN está muito bonita, com uma ótima apresentação, e bons artigos. Achei particularmente interessante o artigo Custos de Transação e Estrutura de Governança no Setor Público, de Úrsula Dias Peres:

"conluímos que, em determinadas situações, pode ser vantajoso criar organizações mais protegidas da política, como autoridades públicas e fundos com recursos vinculados."

Consignado e risco

O empréstimo consignado é aquele onde o valor das parcelas é descontado diretamente na folha de pagamento do funcionário. Em geral é um tipo de empréstimo com baixo risco. Mas não em alguns estados, conforme revela o Valor de 22/10/2007:

Alguns estados criaram um novo risco para as carteiras de empréstimos consignados: simplesmente descontam os recursos da folha dos servidores e não repassam o dinheiro aos bancos. A irregularidade ocorreu em Alagoas, Piauí e Rio de Janeiro, começando nos últimos meses de 2006. Agora, os estados negociam o pagamento dos atrasados com os bancos. Alagoas está na pior situação: o último governo não repassou R$ 40 milhões em parcelas de consignado que venciam entre maio e novembro de 2006, e até agora não há uma proposta firme de renegociação. (...)
Estados descontam consignado e não repassam a bancos
Valor Econômico -22/10/2007

Rir é o melhor remédio

Depois de uma longa enfermidade, a mulher morre e chega à porta do céu. Enquanto espera por São Pedro, ela vê através das frestas seus pais, amigos e todos os que haviam partido antes dela, sentados em uma mesa, desfrutando de um banquete maravilhoso. Quando São Pedro chega, ela comenta:
- Que lugar tão lindo! Como faço para entrar?
Eu vou dizer uma palavra. Se a soletrares corretamente da primeira vez, entras; se errares, vás direto para o inferno -respondeu São Pedro.

- Ok, Qual é a palavra?

- AMOR - disse São Pedro. Ela a soletrou corretamente e entrou no céu.

Um ano depois, São Pedro pediu pra que ela vigiasse a porta. E nesse dia, para sua surpresa, apareceu ele que fora seu marido.
- Olá, que surpresa! - disse ela- Como estás?
- Ah, tenho estado muito bem desde que faleceste. Me casei com aquela bela enfermeira que cuidou de ti, ganhei na loteria e fiquei milionário. Então vendi a casa onde vivíamos e comprei aquela mansão no bairro alto que tu sempre admiraste. Viajei com minha esposa pela Europa, Ásia e Oceania. Estávamos de férias nos Alpes Suíço justamente quando decidi esquiar. Caí..., o esquí bateu na minha cabeça e aqui estou.
E diga-me. Como faço para entrar, querida?

- Eu vou lhe dizer uma palavra. Se a soletrares corretamente da primeira vez, podes entrar. Se não, vás direto para o inferno.
-respondeu ela.

- OK -disse ele - Qual é a palavra?

- SCHWARTZENEGGER

Enviado por Matias

Valor Justo

Abaixo, um artigo publicado na Accountancy, com alguns pontos interessantes sobre o valor justo. O Grifo é meu.

Financial Reporting - Fair value - Bring back Prudence.
8 October 2007 - Accountancy - 76

Fairness is a judgment, not a description; in our discussion of valuation in financial reporting we set aside the rhetorically loaded 'fair' value in favour of the neutral 'current' value. The 'fair' label discourages discourse by implying that its critics favour 'unfair' accounting.

Discussions of fair value accounting have focused on two issues: the decision usefulness and stewardship functions of accounting. We discuss both and show that current valuation is no better than other valuation methods in serving either of these two goals; in some respects it is worse. It may also undermine the reliability of the audit opinion.

The usefulness of current values for making investment decisions is a simple and straightforward statistical argument: if a company's resources are valued more accurately, decisions based on more accurate data would be better. Since value of resources tends to change over time, historical numbers associated with resource acquisition transactions tend to become obsolete with the passage of time, thus creating price movement inaccuracies. Other things being equal, current values should provide more accurate data and therefore be a better basis for making investment decisions.

Other things are not equal

However, other things are not equal. Current values of some resources can be determined with precision, especially if they are standardised, and traded in liquid markets. Steel girders, food grains, automobiles and treasury bonds are examples of such resources. Financial reports based on current prices of such liquid resources (adjusted for their small transaction costs) serve the decision-making function well. The case for current value accounting is based on such resources.

If all resources belonged to this 'liquid' class, the decision-usefulness argument for current values would be quite reasonable. Unfortunately, this is not so in most companies, industries, or the economy as a whole. Most resources are not so liquid, and their current values are subject to estimation or guesswork that introduces varying degrees of inaccuracy in the current numbers, thus creating price measurement errors.

Whether current values are more useful for making decisions depends on the relative magnitudes of the two kinds of errors: movement errors arising from ignoring the changing prices; and measurement errors arising from the imperfections in the markets from which current values are determined. Price instability (for example, inflation, demand or technological change) contributes to movement errors while market imperfections contribute to measurement errors.

When movement errors are large relative to measurement errors, current values are better for decision-making; when the reverse is true, the use of current values results in worse decisions.

Price volatility, and therefore the magnitude of movement error, varies by resource, company, industry, economy and over time. Similarly, market imperfections, and therefore the magnitude of measurement error, also vary by resource, industry and economy. Whether current valuation yields a better basis for making decisions would depend on the specific circumstance; it is not possible to establish their general superiority or inferiority for this purpose. Yet, the standard-setters have chosen to make current values the new basis of accounting for all resources, companies and industries, ignoring the absence of logical or evidentiary basis for its superiority for making decisions.

Stewardship problem

Besides the statistical problem of identifying the circumstances in which current values do and do not serve as a basis for making better investment decisions, there is a stewardship problem.

Shareholders entrust managers with their investment in companies to be run for their mutual benefit. They expect a higher rate of return for themselves by rewarding managers efficiently to deploy their skills in conjunction with capital. What kind of financial reporting arrangement between the owner and manager better serves the interests of both?

When the shareholder cannot know whether or not the financial reports from the managers are factually correct, the possibility of manipulation by the managers of inaccurate valuations made in good faith, reduces the confidence of the shareholder in both the financial reports and in the managers. Absence of trust leads to precautionary moves, which render the relationship less productive to both.

Undermining the audit

Given the measurement errors associated with current values of most resources, their blanket use in financial reporting is a prescription for poorer stewardship and accountability of managers. It may also undermine the value of audit, a key function in reinforcing capital markets' confidence in financial reporting.

The International Accounting Standards Board and the US Financial Accounting Standards Board's proposed conceptual framework for financial reporting is a model of relevance, faithful representation, neutrality, completeness and comparability. It has moved away from reliability and conservatism. Substance over form is subordinated to faithful representation.

When a market mis-prices securities, such as during the dot.com boom and the subprime mortgage market, accounting reports based on current values reflect inflated prices and tend to support, or even reinforce price bubbles.

Audit is an important subset of financial reporting and depends heavily on the quality of the reporting standards. Going forward, auditors may report that current value financial statements are in compliance with GAAP under its conceptual framework. If there are publicly available market prices, the auditor may verify that current values faithfully represent market values but that value may not be neutral or comparable with others. Absent availability of prices from liquid markets, the auditor becomes more dependent on managers' judgment and assurances about the values of some assets. Auditors may find themselves having to express an opinion on a mark to model estimate, which US pundit Warren Buffett has suggested may become mark to myth.

Because current value information may lack reliability, the level of assurance an auditor can offer on current value financial statements will be lower and the value of the audit to shareholders may be diminished.

Under a stewardship regime as in the UK, shareholders may well prefer an audit carried out under a true and conservative accounting model that gives primacy to substance over form and provides the opportunity to apply judgment to override distortion.

If the subprime bubble does nothing else, it questions whether accounting should simply reflect bubbles or should help bring restraint into financial reporting. Without truth, fairness and conservatism, it will be more difficult for shareholders to assess the stewardship of managers. It is still not clear whether, under the 2006 Companies Act, true and fair will return as it was before International Financial Reporting Standards or will remain subordinated to it.

How does a current value balance sheet, when some such values cannot properly be substantiated, contribute to adequate assessment of future cashflows for decision- making? We should invite our old friend Prudence back to financial reporting and auditing. We miss her, and under fair value accounting, so will the auditors.

False prophets

We have consistently maintained that there is no one answer to the world's accounting dilemmas. All accounting is defective and will continue to be defective as long as business activities and behaviours continue to change. Standard-setters may believe that they have found the holy grail. However, like The Da Vinci Code, the proposed answer remains unconvincing. We should eschew monopoly in accounting and allow alternative sets of standards to compete to attract a following in the marketplace rather than persist with a model that supports false prophets.

- Stella Fearnley is professor of accounting at Bournemouth University. Shyam Sunder is James L Frank professor of accounting, economics and finance at Yale School of Management.

Rir é o melhor remédio

De um catálogo de 1975

Impostos

Afinal, a carga tributária no Brasil é elevada ou não? A figura mostra um estudo da OECD para alguns países e a estrutura tributária.

Já a The Economist da semana afirma que grandes países possuem uma alíquota sobre empresas maior que pequenos países, conforme o C.D. Howe Institute, do Canadá.