Pesquisa sobre Covid-19

Uma pesquisa sobre a peste espanhola mostra o seu impacto em termos de mortes (2% da população mundial) e sobre a economia (6 a 8% do PIB)

Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.

Outro trabalho estima que a doença possa atingir entre 33 a 66 milhões de pessoas nos Estados Unidos (de 10 a 20%), sendo necessárias medidas severas. Via aqui