Eleições na Bolívia

A pesquisa sobre fraude em eleições usa muito instrumento da auditoria. E vice-versa.

Recentemente, a Bolívia teve uma votação presidencial, onde o então presidente foi declarado vencedor. Protestos reclamavam que ocorreu fraude na votação. Um texto (via aqui) indica que provavelmente não ocorreu fraude na eleição:

The TSE has two vote-counting systems. The first is a quick count known as the Transmisión de Resultados Electorales Preliminares (TREP, hereafter referred to as the quick count). This is a system that Bolivia and several other Latin American countries have implemented following OAS recommendations. . . . and is designed to deliver a swift — but incomplete and not definitive — result on the night of the elections to give the media an indication of the voting tendency and to inform the public. The TSE is unlikely to process 100 percent of the results in the quick count in nationwide votes due to logistical limitations and the amount processed can vary widely by geography and the type of ballot. . . .

The second vote-counting system is the official count (or cómputo), which is legally binding under Bolivian law. The official count is more thorough and precise and takes longer. It is the only valid vote tallying system, and the TSE uses it to determine and announce the final election results. . . .

In these elections, the results of the official count generally coincided with those of the quick count, which ended once 95.63 percent of tally sheets were counted, with Morales having a lead of 46.86 percent to Mesa’s 36.72. The final official count, with 100 percent of votes counted, resulted in Morales winning the election in the first round with 47.08 percent, to Mesa’s 36.51 percent.

Ou seja, as duas contagens (a rápida e a oficial) apresentaram resultados convergentes. Mais ainda, não ocorreu interrupção na contagem, que seria um sinal de fraude. O gráfico mostra uma evolução consistente:

Mas o relatório da OAS discorda:

Given all the irregularities observed, it is impossible to guarantee the integrity of the data and certify the accuracy of the results. (...) It should be borne in mind that the irregularities we have pointed out are those we observed in a short period of time. It is also important to point out that it was not possible to analyze the original tally sheets for the departments of Potosí, Chuquisaca, and Santa Cruz as part of the documentation had been burned. In all likelihood, given more time to process documentation, even more irregularities would surface.