Excesso de confiança, previsibilidade dos retornos e excesso de negociação

Resumo:

Individuals and asset managers trade aggressively, resulting in high volume in asset markets, even when such trading results in high risk and low net returns. Asset prices display patterns of predictability that are difficult to reconcile with rational expectations–based theories of price formation. This paper discusses how investor overconfidence can explain these and other stylized facts. We review the evidence from psychology and securities markets bearing upon overconfidence effects, and present a set of overconfidence based models that are consistent with this evidence.

Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading Kent Daniel and David Hirshleifer Working Paper No. 21945 January 2016.