A crise de 2008 foi prevista em 1997

Grande parte das pessoas acreditam que a crise financeira de 2007 não foi prevista por boa parte dos economistas. No entanto, num artigo de 1997 Nobuhiro Kiyotaki e John Moore mostraram como as dívidas securitizadas (no caso da crise de 2008, as dívidas das casas) pode amplificar ciclo de negócios e jogar o sistema financeiro e a  economia pra baixo.

Resumo:

We construct a model of a dynamic economy in which lenders cannot force borrowers to repay their debts unless the debts are secured. In such an economy, durable assets play a dual role: not only are they factors of production, but they also serve as collateral for loans. The dynamic interaction between credit limits and asset prices turns out to be a powerful transmission mechanism by which the effects of shocks persist, amplify, and spill over to other sectors. We show that small, temporary shocks to technology or income distribution can generate large, persistent fluctuations in output and asset prices.

Credit Cycles
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and John Moore
Journal of Political Economy
Vol. 105, No. 2 (April 1997), pp. 211-248
http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/262072