Fertilidade e Recessões

Now, new research from Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs shows that women who were in their early 20s during the Great Recession will likely have fewer children in both the short and long term. Past recessions have resulted in an increase in the number of women who remain childless at age 40.

The paper, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is the first to show that recessions have long-term effects on fertility, and those effects increase exponentially over time.

"We find it remarkable that macroeconomic conditions have such a powerful effect on individual women's lives," said co-author Janet Currie, the Henry Putnam Professor of Economics and Public Affairs and director of the Center for Health and Wellbeing (CHW). "This paper provides further evidence of how profoundly recessions and economic cycles alter personal decisions."

To properly understand the long-term effects of high unemployment rates on fertility, women must be followed over time. That's why Currie and Hannes Schwandt, a postdoctoral research associate at CHW, undertook the task of analyzing 140 million U.S. birth records from the Vital Statistics of the United Statesbetween 1975 and 2010. These records provide information about the state and date of a child's birth, gestation length, the age of the mother and the mother's own state of birth. The time period examined covers five recessions varying in strength and timing across states.

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