Previsões para a economia brasileira

Postado por Pedro Correia

Previsões do Deutsche Bank Research:


Brazil will do much better during 2010-20 than during the 1980-2000 period. However, Brazil will not match Chinese and Indian growth rates. In our baseline scenario, by around 2020 Brazil will have overtaken both France and the UK to become the world’s seventh-largest economy, reclaiming the position it occupied in 1980. Economic and political stability, combined with an abundance of arable land and strategic commodity and energy resources, will also help raise Brazil’s importance. Recent oil and gas finds will turn Brazil into an increasingly important energy player, while it already accounts for 50% of coarse grain production and 50% of world beef exports. In addition, Brazil occupies promising positions in the Hausmannian product space (e.g. biofuel technology, aerospace).

However, even if Brazil surprises by implementing key structural reforms, it will still not match Chinese or Indian growth rates. In global economic and political terms, the rise of China and India will be the pivotal event of the 21st century. Neither will Brazil turn into a high-per-capita, high-tech Korea, whose success is due to high levels of investment, trade openness and human capital accumulation. However, economic and political stability will provide the backdrop for Brazil’s continued economic growth and its increasing international political importance, especially vis-à-vis the advanced economies.

Leia reportagens do Financial Times sobre a economia brasileira: Bolha imobiliária e a fragilidade financeira dos bancos.

Grifos meus.