China e o rápido crescimento econômico

Por Pedro Correia

No mais novo artigo de Barry Eichengreen:WHEN FAST GROWING ECONOMIES SLOW DOWN: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA. O autor mostra que economias com crescimento muito rápido entram em suave declínio.Quando o país atinge a renda per capita de 17 mil dólares a taxa de crescimento cai no mínimo em 2%.No caso chinês essa renda per capita será atingida por volta de 2015.Segue resumo:

Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.